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    Most people expect that the economy of 2021 will be an improvement from 2020. I don't think so. Perhaps COVID-19 will be somewhat better, but other aspects of the economy will likely be worse. Continue reading →
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  • Renewables: not enough minerals, energy, time or clean and green 22 januari, 2021
    Preface. Electricity generating contraptions like wind and solar can’t replace the 50% of oil used in global manufacturing, because they can’t generate the high heat needed, or run battery or catenary electric trucks as I explained in “When Trucks Top … Continue reading →

Bundeswehr och 'Peak Oil'

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Nu kommer det även rapporter om att Bundeswehr, Tyska armen, även dom ser en energikris i faggorna. Men det kanske är lika som i England att man inte vill släppa rapporten helt.

The scenarios outlined by the Bundeswehr Transformation Center are drastic. Even more explosive, politically, are recommendations to the government that the energy experts have put forward based on these scenarios. They argue that ”states dependent on oil imports” will be forced to ”show more pragmatism toward oil-producing states in their foreign policy.” Political priorities will have to be somewhat subordinated, they claim, to the overriding concern of securing energy supplies.

Här är en rätt intressant del under punkt 3.

3.2. Systemic risk whilst crossing the ”Tipping Point”
– Total Liquids production declines
– Short term, the world economy contracts proportionally to the decline of oil supply
– Medium term, the global economic system and every market economy collapse (see also bullet point 4 of my initial post)

Investment will decline and debt service will be challenged, leading to a crash in financial markets, accompanied by a loss of trust in currencies and a break-up of value and supply chains – because trade is no longer possible. This would in turn lead to the collapse of economies, mass unemployment, government defaults and infrastructure breakdowns, ultimately followed by famines and total system collapse

Det finns en längre kommentar på The Oil Drum och ett inlägg här.

’Peak Oil’ and the German Government: Military Study Warns of a Potentially Drastic Oil Crisis – SPIEGEL ONLINE – News – International.

Uppdaterat med en punkt 3 om systemisk risk vilket är väldigt tydlig, vi har behandlat detta förut.

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